Ukraine-Russia Conflict 2022: Observations From The First Week

I thought I’d kick things off with a handful of personal observations about the war in Ukraine. We’re at a point in the war where an accurate, in-depth analysis is just not possible. The media, along with the legions of self-described ‘experts’ on social media platforms are painting incomplete and inaccurate portraits of what’s happening on the ground in Ukraine. I expected as much from the media. They are usually at least a day behind events, as we are seeing once again. Meanwhile the ‘experts’ are either presenting bits and pieces of information without the proper context. Or in some cases, presenting conclusions that simply have no supporting data or verifiable reports.

Russian’s Woes-The Russian offensive continues on despite the myriad of issues that Russian forces are contending with. No matter how you want to look at it, the Russian Army performance so far in Ukraine has been lackluster. There have been dozens of reports about the logistics nightmare facing many Russian units. The problems are very real. However, the failure to get sufficient supplies of fuel, ammunition and food forward is not the greatest problem facing the Russian military now. 

That dubious honor belongs to the failure of Russian forces to use combined arms operations effectively. Time and time again we’ve seen an inability by Russian units to integrate different combat arms to achieve objectives on the battlefield in this war. Especially around urban settings. This must be particularly galling for senior Russian commanders since combined arms doctrine has been prevalent in Russian and Soviet military playbooks for decades. What Zhukov and Konev used to bring victory on the Eastern Front cannot be executed properly by their modern-day counterparts. This needs to be corrected immediately. Otherwise, the chances of Russia’s offensive operations bogging down even deeper could increase dramatically.

Lessons Learned After One Week of War In Ukraine

• Russian artillery remains every bit as fearsome and effective as it was in the 20^th Century

• Russian artillery observers remain every bit as blind as they were in the 20^th Century 😊

• Who controls the skies is immaterial to the eventual outcome of this conflict. Remember the old joke about the two Soviet generals enjoying a coffee together in Brussels at the conclusion of WW III.

• The majority of talking heads and pundits on TV these days simply showcase their lack of knowledge about military and geopolitical matters each time they open their mouths.

• NATO’s Eastern Flank needs a legitimate war plan and command structure at once.

• There has yet to be a single assessment of the Ukrainian military’s performance in the war so far. Aside from press releases by Kiev and videos of Javelin and Stinger victories over Russian hardware, we have no idea how Ukraine’s units in the field are performing.

• The Stinger and Javelin both work every bit as well as advertised.