As I said in the previous entry, it is impossible to predict the shape that a Third World War will take. But from professionals on down there is no shortage of men and women eager to throw their hats in the prognostication ring, whether it be on social media, around the watercooler or with friends at the bar. Ukraine should’ve served as a wet blanket to people when it came to predicting how a war might turn out. I mean let’s be honest, NOBODY got Ukraine right from the get-go, myself included.
Ukraine remains on the list of conflicts/hotspots liable to erupt into a global war. From the beginning, Russia’s invasion and NATO’s involvement in supplying and arming Ukraine has kept the world on edge. The possibility of the war expanding and escalating has reared its head more than once and the danger has not declined. Ukraine’s ATACMS strike against targets in Crimea over the past weekend is proof. Russian civilians were killed, and the Kremlin places blame for the incident on the United States. It’s clear to see how retaliation could lead to escalation resulting in hostilities between US and Russian forces. Plausible? Without a doubt. Likely? Time will tell. For the moment, the war in Ukraine will remain on the radar.
Next let’s examine the Israeli-Hamas conflict. Iran has been acting as a puppet master to its various proxy groups now engaged directly or indirectly in the conflict. The Houthis in Yemen have proved to be a tough nut for the West to crack, affecting global commerce and supply chains with their attacks in the Red Sea. The situation there is not enough to trigger escalation and a global war on its own of course. But an Israeli offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon could, and now Israel is moving closer and closer to launching an offensive in the north. Iran could jump directly into the conflict….again, triggering a major escalation with Israel. Direct escalation is certain not to take this conflict anywhere good.
South Asia has long been considered one of the ‘usual suspects’ that could trigger a global conflagration. India and Pakistan are bitter rivals that have fought three major wars against each other since 1947, as well as numerous lesser military engagements over the years. Both nations are now nuclear powers with respectable arsenals in their possession. Indo-Pakistani flareups occur from time to time, but luckily calmer heads prevail. It would not take much for a new Indo-Pakistani conflict to break out. Especially now with China having become a major player on the South Asia/Indian Ocean gameboard.
The Western Pacific has multiple potential flashpoints at present. Taiwan Strait, South China Sea, and let’s not forget about North Korea. The volatility in this region is well known and it is widely assumed that, unlike Ukraine or Gaza, if a conflict erupts here, it will assuredly trigger a global war. Personally, I believe the chances of this are high but not guaranteed.
The next post of this series will be the largest and is set to come this weekend. I will present one contemporary World War III scenario, along with some data from models designed to paint an accurate picture of how this hypothetical conflict might play out in reality. Bear in mind please that the models were built in late 2023 and the data was last updated earlier this year. So they might not include some recent events. I have not decided what current conflict or crisis to use yet, but a Western Pacific-based scenario seems likely at the moment.
Third World War 1987 