Ukraine Update 2 July, 2022

I hope everyone is enjoying the holiday weekend on both sides of the Atlantic. Here in the United States, Monday is our Independence Day. Across the pond in Great Britain they call it Treason Day and it is not so much a day of celebration as it is a day of bitter remembrance. 😊 As for D+23, the next post will be up tomorrow night and perhaps a thermonuclear fireworks display will kick off on Monday if time permits.

For this post, however, I wanted to discuss the present-day conflict in Ukraine briefly.  I came across an article earlier today on how the Ukrainians believe that Russia’s growing reliance on Soviet-era weapons has increased collateral damage in recent weeks. A fair argument at first glance, I admit. But considering that nearly every current Russian weapons system, as well as a healthy number of Ukrainian ones (Western systems included) can trace their origins back to the Cold War years, it is safe to say that every weapon now in play is from the Soviet/Cold War arsenal. From the AK-74 to the T-72, -80 and -90 battle tanks, as well as the MiGs and Flankers up above, everything originated in the Cold War era in either design or production. The same can be said for tactics too, but that’s another discussion altogether.

In a press briefing on Thursday, Brigadier General Oleksiy Hromov, Deputy Chief of the Main Operations Department of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine highlighted the use of more weapons from the Soviet era by Russian forces. “To carry out rocket strikes, the enemy in more than 50 percent of cases is using missiles from the Soviet reserve, which are not sufficiently precise,” General Hromov said. “As a result, civilian buildings are being hit.” Now, in any conflict there are going to be weapon malfunctions and miscues that result in non-combatant casualties and collateral damage. This is simply a part of war. To blame the age and/or origins of weapons systems, Hromov sounds more like Baghdad Bob than a reputable general officer and spokesperson for the Ukrainian military.

 As for the war, things could be going better for Ukrainian forces in Donbas. The fight for Lysychansk appears to be over going by reports from independent analysts and observers. The Ukrainians claim to still be fighting in the city amid growing indications the Russians have advanced into the center of the city and are attempting to encircle it. Either way, loss of this city will essentially remove Ukrainian forces from the Luhansk and give Russia total control of the Luhansk region. Shortages continue to plague Ukraine’s soldiers fighting in the east, most notably artillery shell shortages. Material from European nations and the US is coming in, but not fast enough to reach the front and make a difference. Russia has considerably more artillery pieces and shells available. This advantage is steadily contributing to major victories in Donbas. For the moment, artillery is King of the battlefield in Eastern Ukraine.

Despite public promises to continue providing Ukraine with whatever war material it needs, the United States and other Western nations are singing another tune behind the scenes. Economic blowback from the war continues to adversely affect Western economies. High energy prices, shortages of a variety of goods and skyrocketing costs are being felt around the world. Pressure is growing on Zelenskiy to consider a negotiated settlement to the war. Zelenskiy, understandably, is against any settlement that would result in his country losing more territory. But Ukraine’s leader has to realize the rest of the world, while still morally supporting Ukraine, is growing weary of the war and want it to end soon. Before the economic damage to national economies in Europe and North America increases.  

16 Replies to “Ukraine Update 2 July, 2022”

  1. A couple of comments:

    – I believe Hromov meant 1970s-era Soviet stocks. By the mid-1980s, Soviet technology had come relatively close to Western tech, though the collapse of the Soviet empire and the ensuing decade ensured that what modernization had been going on…in both Russia and Ukraine…stopped. The Russians reverted to type even before the portion of their advanced weaponry they allocated to this venture ran out.

    – Given the West refuses to address their energy crunch in a meaningful way, I wouldn’t be surprised if they force Czechoslovakia to accept the loss of the Sudetenl…er…Ukraine to accept the loss of the Donbas.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Yeah, he was talking about the 70s era stocks but the example he used was of the AS-4 Kitchen cruise missile. It started off as an anti-ship missile but then in 2016 the Russians modified it to strike land targets. We did the same thing with the Harpoon but with better results. Harpoon’s land attack cousin is the SLAM.

      Like I said previously, the energy crunch is going to peel off support for Ukraine if the war keeps going on. Germany is not going to sacrifice its economy for Kiev. Same for other NATO nations. A settlement will come sooner or later but it needs to be fair to Prague….I mean Kiev 🙂


      1. The Kh-22 is only technically capable of hitting land targets. It uses a system not very different from the V-1 for guidance and radar meant to lock onto its target from tens of miles away for terminal homing.

        Its 2016 follow-on, the Kh-32 (which uses the same body, a smaller warhead and a more-powerful motor), at least switched to a more-modern INS system (though not tied to GLONASS) and a somewhat-more-modern radar, though I doubt it can tell the difference between two similarly-sized potential targets in the same vicinity. Indeed, some of the Kh-22s were apparently upgraded to the Kh-32 standard.

        The funny thing is, Russia has a family of rather accurate long-range ALCMs; the Kh-55/101 family. Indeed, they got some back from Ukraine when Ukraine gave up their Tu-160s.

        Meanwhile, I’m seeing rumblings that Ukraine is making gains in the south at about the same pace Russia is making gains in the east.

        Liked by 1 person

        1. In war, weapons sometimes miss the mark. Whether they’re technologically advanced or not, sometimes munitions land in the wrong places for whatever reasons.
          Yeah, the AS-15 Kents (KH-55) have been untouched in this war. Haven’t seen a thing about them being used.

          The war in the south is even more rugged than in the east. Best place for Ukraine to make gains and keeping the RUssians as far away from Odesa as possible is very important


          1. True, but if I wanted to hit a specific land target rather than just any old land target, I wouldn’t use a radar-homing missile. The odd thing is, the Kh-55 and semi-stealthy Kh-101 have been used by Russia in Syria.

            That they are subsonic might be why they haven’t been used in Ukraine, though the success of the TLAM and CALCM (which have the same long-range subsonic/terrain-following profile) in multiple hostile environments would belie concerns that the Kents wouldn’t get through.

            Liked by 1 person

            1. Interesting, Steve. Your point made me think about the fact the Russians have used some cruise missiles in daylight against targets in Ukraine. I know the Ukrainians claim to have shot down many Russian missiles and all but if they’re using cruise missiles and even ballistic missiles in daylight hours, how strong can defending anti-aircraft and SAM fire be?


          2. Surely that southern theatre would be where the Ukrainians are putting their new Western artillery to best use? They aren’t going to hold on to Donetsk and Luhansk, regardless of what bluster comes from Kyiv. The best they can hope for is to retake Kherson and Zaphorozye oblasts before a ceasefire.

            Liked by 1 person

            1. The artillery would be most useful in the south, I think you’re right. Keep the Russians away from Nikolayev and even Odesa. Ukraine needs the south more than the east


      2. I mean to be fair Germany financed and supplied a significant portion of Russia’s war machine. Germany has bought an incredible amount of oil and gas from Russia the past few decades and has supplied them with a significant portion of the machine tools used to create their military arms. Germany’s calls for a negotiated settlement are likely to fall on deaf ears in Ukraine.

        Liked by 1 person

        1. They’re definitely going to fall on deaf ears for the short term. But eventually this war will have become too expensive for a lot of nations to continue supporting. That’s when phone calls are made and decisions reached behind the scenes


  2. 1. Over the last 10 years, the Queen has looked pretty good as a leader vs ours. Though Parliament hasn’t improved one bit since 1776. If our founding fathers could see our current taxation system and world wide foreign entanglements. Ugh
    2. Our mother of all sanctions bomb has not worked as advertised. It was designed as a long term weapon that hoped for short term results (the RUS oligarchs & establishment would send Putin to his dacha in the sky). While our intel community deserves an A+ for Rus Operational/ Tactical intentions. We still seem to have not replaced National level assets destroyed by the the Iran/Rus/China mid 2000s hack of the CIA agent communications system. On a side note, the story the UKR vs Rus intel Services agents, double, and triple prior to the war will be a OSS legendary. The Rus be told they’d be welcome with flowers, UKR being told the build up was all diplomatic posturing. The Rus bribery of local civ & mil leadership ahead of invasion, then complete betrayal, they took the rubles and ran.
    3. I’m not even sure if we had/would triple the arms provided by the west, it would significantly change the ground situation. You’re the airpower guy, but i doubt Migs/F16s would alter the ground situation much. Now B52s and A10s maybe. Sadly this is going to resemble 1917-18 Western front for awhile. Hopefully the world gets a better outcome than Versailles.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. I must say, I’ve always respected Queen Elizabeth and always will. A wonderful woman and monarch.

      I’m in agreement. Those assets have not been replaced yet and won’t be for a long time.

      The Russians were told by Ukrainians they bribed what they wanted to hear and nothing more. The Ukes took the money and ran. I can’t helpt but laugh.

      Nope, more MiGs and F-16s wouldn’t alter the ground situation. It’s time for Zelenskiy to seriously consider a negotiated settlement. With the West supporting him it might be acceptable. We just can’t keep allowing the war to go on and harm our economies. It’s getting crazy now


  3. A lot of countries would of sacrificed economically for Kiev, Greater UKR. That threat has passed. Large scale economic upheaval for the Luhansk/Donetsk, Mariupol land bridge to Crimea. No

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Right. Ukraine’s survival is no longer in question and no one wants to pay $10 a gallon gas prices for Donbas or Crimea. Zelenskiy needs to tread carefully here now.


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