Ukraine Update 14 June, 2022

I want to touch on Ukraine briefly before diving into D+23. It has been some time since my last Ukraine post. Since then, the military situation and politics of the war have undergone a photosynthesis of sorts. As is the case with all wars, the 2022 Ukraine-Russia conflict has not gone according to plan for either side. Adjustments and modifications to planning, strategy, tactics and equipment have been made by each side. Some have been more effective than others.

In any event, the war continues. As time goes on, this conflict becomes strikingly comparable to the Winter War of 1939-40, which was fought between the Soviet Union and Finland in the early days of World War II. Despite the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, the Soviets did not trust their erstwhile German allies Moscow wanted to establish a security zone that would protect Leningrad from attack. Negotiations failed to convince Finland to cede portions of its border territories in exchange for land elsewhere. As a result, the Soviet Union resorted to the military option and invaded on 30 November, 1939. On paper, the Soviets appeared to have overwhelming military superiority. Yet once the shooting started, the Red Army revealed itself to be little more than a paper tiger beset by corruption and minimal training standards. The Finns held off Soviet attacks for two months and caused heavy casualties and material losses to the attackers. The Soviets backed off, reorganized, and adopted new tactics. In February, 1940 the offensive resumed and within a month Soviet forces broke through the Finnish defenses. A ceasefire and subsequent peace treaty followed shortly afterwards, and Finland was forced to cede Karelia and other territories to the Soviet Union.

The conflict in Ukraine is moving along a comparable track. In the weeks leading up to the conflict, Western analysts assumed Russia, with its military advantage, would roll to victory over Ukraine in a matter of days. On paper there was little reason to doubt the outcome. Russia had the edge in practically every category. Once the balloon went up, however, it was another story altogether. Russia’s offensive bogged down almost everywhere. The Ukrainians, with their recently arrived Western weapons, inflicted heavy casualties and material losses upon the invaders. After a month of fighting, Russia paused and eventually shifted its primary focus from attempting to capture Kiev to a more limited, realistic offensive in the Donbas region. The pause was used by Russian forces to resupply, rearm and adjust to the new realities of this conflict.

As of now, the move is bearing fruit for Russia. Despite heavy fighting, Russian troops are making significant progress on the ground. Severodonetsk is on the verge of being captured, Ukrainian defenders are absorbing unacceptably high casualties as they attempt to hold on. To make matters worse, the Ukrainian military is enduring a major shortage in artillery ammunition at the worst possible time. The effect of the Russian quantity in arms and ammunition is beginning to have a major effect which could potentially be disastrous for the Ukrainians.

Ukraine’s government has steadfastly claimed it will not cede any amount of territory to Russia in exchange for a ceasefire and termination of hostilities. However, as time goes on, this position is becoming less tenable. Unlike Russia, Ukrainian forces do not have large stockpiles of ammunition and material to take from. Right now, much of the ammunition for heavy Soviet-era weapons is running critically low. The resupply effort from Eastern European nations with their own stockpiles of Soviet-era weaponry is not keeping up with Ukrainian demand. More worrisome is the fact that as the war continues, Ukraine finds itself in need of more material and weapons. Unfortunately, the overwhelming Western moral and material support for Ukraine now appears to finally be diminishing. As it becomes clear Ukraine will survive this war, albeit perhaps with a territorial concession, many NATO nations are looking to limit the amount of weapons, money and material being given to Ukraine.

Zelenskiy could be forced to make an unpalatable decision in the coming weeks. With the war causing irreparable damage to his national economy, as well as those of nations around the world, he might need to hand over Donbas to Russia in exchange for ending the war. Neither side is willing to walk away from this war with nothing to show for its sacrifices. Unfortunately for Ukraine, Russia can continue fighting for a long time yet before it runs low on ammunition and material. The capability of Ukrainian forces to continue fighting effectively rests on Western aid. It might not be evident to the general public right now, but there are discussions taking place behind the scenes in Brussels, Washington, Berlin, Paris and London centered on how to end the Russia-Ukraine war before it brings more economic damage to the rest of the world.