Ukraine Observations 6 April, 2022

While it seems clear now that the Russian offensive aimed at Kiev is dead and buried, the war in Ukraine continues on with no end in sight. It is hard to believe that back in early February the consensus among experts was that Russia’s war against Ukraine would last little more than a week at most. Kiev was expected to be in Russian hands within 72 hours and the rest of the country would quickly follow suit. The latest round of predictions is nowhere near as simple. It’s become clear the war in Ukraine will be a protracted conflict probably lasting through the remainder of 2022 at the least. The intensity of the fighting will diminish in the coming weeks as both sides look to replace loses, resupply and repair equipment. Also, during this coming lull Russia will continue to refocus its future efforts in the Donbas region and away from Kiev and south-central Ukraine.

At this time, there are far more questions than answers available concerning a myriad of war-related subjects. The photographs and information coming out of Bucha and other towns speak for themselves. Murder, rape and other atrocities have almost certainly taken place. Ukraine claims Russian troops are responsible for massacres, torture and execution of civilians, and sexual assaults. The Russian government says otherwise, calling the discovery of bodies a sham concocted by Kiev and the West. It will take years to sort out the truth. Unfortunately, barring a regime change in Russia, I do not believe any Russian military officers and NCOs will ever be held accountable for their actions.

As the days go by, I find myself liking Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy less and less. This is not to say I do not support his country because I do. But as I’ve mentioned in previous posts, the guy is just a little sketchy. His recent rants to the UN Security Council, other distinguished bodies, and the media have adopted a demanding, almost arrogant tone. For example, he continues to forcibly request combat aircraft from the West, even going as far as assuring the world that Ukrainian pilots can learn to fly an F-15 or F-16 in three weeks. Now, he is more or less correct about the Viper. A rhesus monkey could fly that jet after two weeks of training. 😊

The F-15, on the other hand….no pilot is going to learn how to fly and then fight the Eagle in three weeks. Take my word for it.

Looking at the Russian military, it’s safe to say it is in desperate need of an overhaul. For the foreseeable future, Russia is out of the modern conventional war business. It’s experiences in the first month of the Ukraine war are not exactly unique. Russian history over the last 120 years or so reveal multiple instances of Russia beginning a war woefully unprepared and bringing about negative consequences on the battlefield and beyond. The Russo-Japanese War in 1904-05, the Winter War of 1940 and Operation Barbarossa a little more than a year later are three examples. There are more, though. Now the 2022 Ukraine War is fated to become the next entry on this shameful list.

Whether or not an overhaul will improve Russia’s military fortunes is unknown. The last few attempts to overhaul and modernize the armed forces obviously did not take. Putin was lied to by his intelligence people, defense minister and senior military leaders. Instead of ordering a modernized military led by motivated and capable officers and NCOs into battle, he unknowingly sent a paper tiger instead.

Now Putin and Russia are forced to live with the short and long-term consequences of this failed ‘military operation’ and unfortunately, so is the rest of the world.